Regional victory brings Germany’s Scholz brief respite

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) staved off the far right in a regional election on Sunday, likely providing him only a brief reprieve from growing criticism of his leadership within his own party.

The center-left SPD staged a last minute comeback in the eastern state of Brandenburg, where they have ruled since reunification in 1990 and Scholz has his own constituency, to win the election on 30.9% of the vote.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which had topped polls for the past two years in the state, won 29.2%, according to provisional official results by the State Electoral Commissioner.

Still the AfD was up 5.7 percentage points since the last Brandenburg election five years ago, after it earlier this month became the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since World War II.

The AfD party continues to gain momentum as it capitalizes on worries about a cost-of-living crisis in Europe’s largest economy, irregular immigration and a possible escalation of the war in Ukraine due to German weapons deliveries to Kyiv.

Moreover, three-quarters of those who voted for the SPD did not do so out of conviction but rather to fend off the AfD, according to the exit poll published by broadcaster ARD, in the election with a record turnout of 72.9%.

Brandenburg’s SPD premier Dietmar Woidke avoided campaigning with Scholz, Germany’s least popular chancellor on record, and even criticized the federal coalition’s policies and constant bickering.

As such, the regional election results are unlikely to end the growing debate within the SPD over whether Scholz is the right person to lead the party into next year’s federal election given what critics call his hesitant leadership and poor communication skills.

Asked on Sunday if the SPD federal leadership was the right one, Woidke said this was not the right time to answer that question.

“But we must also learn the lessons from this election,” he said, noting the SPD needed to get closer to the people. “Especially as the federal level is concerned, there is a lot of catching up to do in the coming months and years.”

The SPD is polling just 15% at national level, down from 25.7% in the 2021 federal election. That is behind the AfD on around 20% and opposition conservatives on 32%.

Last week, the mayor of Munich, Germany’s third largest city, was the latest SPD party politician to suggest it should consider fielding the popular Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, 64, as its candidate for the 2025 elections.

Party insiders say Scholz, 66, who already announced his intention to run for a second term, is unlikely to step aside and more senior officials remain loyal to him.

The junior partners in Scholz’s ideologically heterogeneous coalition suffered dismal performances in Sunday’s election which could further stoke tensions in Berlin.

The Greens fell below the 5% threshold to make it into the state parliament for the first time in two decades on 4.1%, while the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) scraped less than 1% of the vote.

“Either the traffic light coalition shows that it can draw the necessary conclusions from these elections, or it will cease to exist,” warned FDP Vice Wolfgang Kubicki. “This is a matter of a few weeks. We won’t wait until Christmas. We can’t put the country through that.”

Last week, FDP leader and Finance Minister Christian Lindner had called for an “autumn of decisions”, giving a cryptic answer when asked if his party would break up the coalition.

Still, analysts say the government is unlikely to fall apart given none of the three coalition parties would currently stand to gain from snap elections. Together they are currently polling at around 30% combined, less than the conservatives alone.